XVIII IWRA World Water Congress Beijing China 2023
Sub-theme 3: Building Resilience for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation
Author(s): Presenter: Baoxu Zhao
Presenter: Baoxu Zhao
Organisation: General Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design, MWR, China
Oral: PDFAbstractDate: Sept. 12th Session No.: RS 13 Theme: 3-7 Submission No.: O-3-7-60
Flood elasticity analyses under changing conditions:
- Employment of covariates: Enabling the predictions of future floods;
- Statistical model (GAMLSS): Validated by process-based models;
- Flood elasticity: Weaker for stronger events;
- Storm-flood elasticity: Different values under the nonstationary case.
- Future flood peak changes in the UCPRB:
Future flood: Increasing till late 21st century;
- Scenario: SSP585>SSP370>SSP245>SSP126;
- Climate change: Increasing dominance as time flows;
- Deforestation: Larger effects for stronger events.