Presenter
Mr. Pablo Andrés Pineda Capacho, Universidad de Guanajuato
Co-author(s)
Dr. Manuel Martinez Morales, Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua
Dr. Ismael Orozco Medina, Universidad de Guanajuato
Sub-theme
3. Building Resilience for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation
Topic
3-5. Monitoring and early warning of water-related disasters
Body
Climate change has led to changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather and climate events, increasing the risk of intense rainfall and drought events, with significant impacts on water management, particularly in developing countries where water scarcity already leads to losses and risks to human security. A significant number of aquifers in Mexico exhibit high levels of depletion along with quality problems, leading to their overexploitation in arid and semiarid regions. In this context, a methodology is proposed to assess the potential effects of climate change on the hydrodynamic behavior of the Valle de León aquifer in Mexico, considering that it is a free aquifer in a state of overexploitation. To achieve this, a combination of tools is used, including a distributed hydrological model (TETIS), a general circulation model (GCM) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), greenhouse gas scenarios from the IPCC, and the MODFLOW® model for the hydrogeological component. The downscaling method is also used to enable the use of sub-basin-scale projections, and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is proposed to carry out this task. The study evaluates the future conditions of the Valle de León aquifer, considering the years 2025, 2030, and 2035, with 2020 as the starting point. The results are obtained from projections of precipitation variations, percolation, and evapotranspiration using ANN for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The simulation results show that climate change projections in the Valle de León aquifer will have a significant impact on groundwater levels and system hydrodynamics. In 2025, a decrease in groundwater levels is observed in both scenarios, with the RCP8.5 scenario being the most affected, particularly in the well extraction area. In 2030, an even greater decrease in groundwater levels is observed under the RCP4.5 scenario, while the RCP8.5 scenario shows a recovery in groundwater levels. In 2035, the results show a recovery in both scenarios. Overall, the results indicate the need for adaptation and sustainable management measures for the aquifer to address the impacts of climate change and ensure its long-term use. The model can help decision-makers to plan and manage water resources more effectively in the region, considering the potential implications of climate change on the hydrodynamic behavior of the aquifer.