Presenter
Ms. Zhengyu Guo, Hohai university
Co-author(s)
Prof. Chenhao Jin, Hohai university
Prof. Shenbei Zhou, Hohai university
Sub-theme
1. Water-Human-Economy(Agriculture, Industry, City...)-Ecology Nexus under a Changing Environment
Topic
1-4. Water security challenges in key regions
Body
[purpose/significance] The Yellow River Basin is a significant resource-rich, grain center and ecological defense area in China, performing vital role in national water security as well as economic and social growth. The key to improve the water security of the Yellow River Basin and explore the realization of high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin is to evaluate, analyze and forecast the water security in the Yellow River Basin. [problem and methodology] Most of the existing literature is only from the single aspect of assessment or prediction of water resource safety in the basin, and there are few literatures combining assessment and prediction, let alone the judgment research on the degree of obstacles. Based on the driving force-pressure-state-impact-management (DPSIRM), comprehensively considering the population, economic and social development, ecological, environment, resources, management and other influencing factors, a water resource security assessment index system in the Yellow River Basin is built. The entropy weight-improved TOPSIS method was used to evaluate the comprehensive score of the water resources safety in the Yellow River Basin from 2017 to 2021. On this basis, the obstacle degree model was constructed and applied to the diagnosis of water resource security obstacle factors in the Yellow River Basin. Finally, the BP neural network was used to fit the mapping relationship between index data and water resource safety, and the prediction model of water safety assessment in the Yellow River Basin was constructed. Based on the previous research sample data, the future water resource security situation and possible obstacle factors of the Yellow River Basin were discussed. [conclusions] The following conclusions of this paper is intended to be obtained: (1) The water resources safety in nine provinces and regions of the Yellow River Basin from 2017 to 2021 and the main obstacle factors causing water resources security; (2) Prediction of water security and possible obstacle factors in the Yellow River Basin in 2025 and 2030; (3) According to the identified obstacle degree factors, the corresponding solution is proposed and the feasibility of the solution is simulated, in order to improve the ability of water security in the Yellow River basin and realize sustainable and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.