Presenter
Ms. Sizhong He, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University
Co-author(s)
Ms. Zhenzhen Ma, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin
Sub-theme
1. Water-Human-Economy(Agriculture, Industry, City...)-Ecology Nexus under a Changing Environment
Topic
1-3. Balanced and coordinated development of water-economy-ecology system
Body
Reasonable urban water consumption evolution trend prediction considering the impacts of socio-economic development is an important part of the medium- or long-term programming for water resources utilization and allocation and is one of the basic techniques for water resources management. Previous studies mainly focused on the correlation between water consumption and socio-economic development on the national or regional scales and that on the urban scale still needs to be further studied. This research aimed to study the correlation between urban water consumption and socio-economic development of the city and to discuss its application for urban water consumption prediction. Through the literature review and statistical analysis (i.e. correlation test, regression analysis, etc.), the urban socio-economic development process and the socio-economic factors influencing urban water consumption are identified and the evolution characteristics of urban water consumption driven by socio-economic development are analyzed and summarized. An urban water consumption prediction method based on urban water consumption evolution characteristics is proposed, which is applied in a research case, Chengdu, China, with the corresponding predicted results being compared with those predicted using Genetic Programming. The research results show that: (a) three socio-economic indexes, urbanization rate (Ru), GDP per capita (GDPc), and the ratio of the annual added value of the tertiary industry to GDP (Rtg) can be considered as the main influencing factors of the urban water consumption; (b) urban water consumption of a city generally shows an increasing trend before the inflection point year and tends to decrease or keep stable in the following years; (c) in the inflection point year, the socio-economic indexes of the cities with relatively poor water resources conditions may be higher than those of the cities with better water resources conditions; (d) the urban water consumption prediction method based on urban water consumption evolution characteristics may be more reasonable than that based on Genetic Programming which may not be able to reflect the universal urban water consumption evolution characteristics of a city.