Rongsheng Jiang, Ming Sun, Xiao Shi
Jiangsu Provincial Meteorological Service Center
Objectives
Previous studies have typically focused on evaluating RCMs present climate biases and future climate changes between simulations driven by different GCMs and/or under different scenarios However, very few have investigated connections between these biases and changes, where a systematic propagation may increase the overall projection uncertainty Identifying these connections is important to determine projection uncertainties that are caused by model structural deficiencies The lack of physics understanding renders it difficult to assess the signal robustness of the projected regional changes, especially for precipitation Therefore, this study used a state of the art regional Climate Weather Research and Forecasting model CWRF, Liang et al 2012 to downscale the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model V 4 0 (CCSM 4 simulations, focusing on precipitation projections in China and more importantly physics understanding of regional changes