Presenter
Dr. Qingsong Wu, Zhengzhou University
Co-author(s)
Prof. Qiting Zuo, Zhengzhou University
Prof. Junxia Ma, Zhengzhou University
Sub-theme
3. Building Resilience for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation
Topic
3-7. Management of water risks induced by extreme weather and climate events
Body
Climate change is a global hot-button issue that has drawn extensive attention from governments and the scientific community as well as from ordinary people. It possesses great meaning to study and reveal the occurrence and development law of extreme climatic events (ECEs) from multiple perspectives. In this study, a Distribution-Evolution-Attribution-Risk (DEAR) framework was developed for integrated assessment of extreme climatic events (ECEs). The DEAR framework is dedicated not only to the determination of the characters of ECEs in terms of distribution and evolution, but also to the identification of their response to atmospheric oscillations and solar activity. Moreover, the risk degree (RD) of climate extremes (CEs) can be quantified by introducing fuzzy comprehensive evaluation thought and employing the SMI-P method. Then, the Upper Yellow River basin (UYRB) in China was selected as a typical case to implement and verify the framework. The essential characteristics and development law of ECEs in the UYRB were examined by selecting 7 extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) and 9 extreme temperature indices (ETIs) in terms of multiple scales, dimensions and aspects. Results reveal that: a) the concentration and impact of precipitation in the UYRB have become severe from 1961 to 2020, the intensity and frequency of high temperature extremes have increased significantly, and there are obvious differences among indices in terms of spatial distribution; b) the barycenter of extreme climate indices (ECIs) is centered in the mid-southwest of UYRB and their mutation years are mainly located in the 1980s and 1990s, meanwhile they basically have both interannual and interdecadal periods but exhibit differences in time domain, frequency and oscillation intensity; c) the AO and SOI have closer relationship with ECEs than PDO, and the correlations between ETIs and large-scale indicators are weaker than that of EPIs; d) the RDs of CEs are mainly located in 0.4-0.7 and the UYRB generally suffers from more risk from extreme precipitation than extreme temperature, but their occurrence may not be synchronous. The findings contribute to elucidating the occurrence and development laws of CEs, formulating natural disaster prevention planning, and mitigating their destructive effects.