IWRA World Water Congress 2008 Montpellier France
3. Climate Change and Disasters
Author(s): Ignacio Sanchez Cohen
Gabriel Díaz Padilla
Jose L.
Gonzalez Barrios
Luck Descroix
Keyword(s): water management, emigration,
modeling.
Article: PDFAbstractHigh variability in both space and time has had huge impact on Mexico's agriculture forcing farmers to change
economical activity. Planted area on the irrigation districts (where 73% of the GIP of agriculture is produced) has
declined over time triggering the use of pumping water depleting aquifers at an estimated rate ranging from 0.5 to 2.5
meters per year. The first impact of this is the reduction of water quality below international standards. On the other
hand, rainfall uncertainty in rain feed agriculture has forced farmers to emigrate to other states, other activity or to
other country. This paper analyses the impact of rainfall uncertainty in the agricultural sector having economical and
social decision variables as output to development plans in Mexico.