Giuseppe Rossi,Vincenzo Marco Nicolosi,Antonino Cancelliere, University of Catania, Civil and Environmental Engineering, vmnico@dica.unict.it
Effective mitigation of drought impacts in water supply system management strongly depends on clearly defined indicators describing the level of risk of shortages due to drought that the system has to face in a short term horizon. Such a shortage risk plays a central role in the reduction of drought impacts and can be evaluated with the objective to trigger predefined mitigation measures included in a Drought Management Plan to be prepared in advance. The paper presents a methodology for a risk-based short-term drought management of a water supply system considering three management policies of the water supply system with reference to drought (normal, alert and alarm). The methodology presents an indicator of risk of shortages due to drought based on Montecarlo simulation enabling water managers to take decisions considering the probability of shortages in the next future as a function of the decisions taken in the present also considering additional groundwater resources. Application to a water supply system in Sicily including a reservoir supplying competing uses indicates the potential of the methodology to reduce drought impacts, to support decision processes and to implement an effective conjunctive use of water.
Keywords: Drought risk management, Montecarlo simulation, Conjunctive use of water