Raniéri Carlos Ferreira De Amorim,Ricardo Ferreira Carlos de Amorim,Samuellson Lopes Cabral,Mikael Timóteo Rodrigue,Alane Saldanha dos Santos,Gyuliano Carlos do Nascimento, Instituto Federal de Ciência, Educação e Tecnologia de Alagoas - IFAL, , rcfamorim@gmail.com
ABSTRACT:
This study aims to evaluate the model performance of the WRF mesoscale prognostic rain in the Rio Mundaú in Alagoas and Pernambuco. Atmospheric models are computational tools that aid in weather forecasts, indicating adverse phenomena as intense rainfall, temperature and pressure anomalies, among others, their results can be applied in order to avoid losses in economic sectors such as agriculture, livestock, tourism and as human lives. 17 and 18 June 2010 were studied due to intense rains that occurred that caused discomfort and damage the local population of Rio Mundaú-Alagoas. Were simulated by the model, images of precipitation in the states of Alagoas and Pernambuco, using data from the NCEP reanalysis and NCAR generated for the same period of study because the occurrence of intense rainfall, GOES 12 Satellite Images and Maps of rainfall the state Department of Environment and Water Resources - SEMARH were compared to the WRF simulations for a better view of the systems in the region, giving greater consistency to the results obtained by the model. The simulations were generated with two fields containing 100 x 90 grid points in the first area and second in 133 x 121, with 15km and 5km spatial resolution. The data used in the simulations were the type FNL (Final Global Analyses) for the NCEP reanalysis data, the results could be observed through the viewer GRADS (Grid Analysis Display System). The model is efficient for simulation of rainfall for Mundaú River Basin, located in the states of Alagoas and Pernambuco, as well as in the simulation of convective systems as CCM's working in the area of research.
KEYWORDS: Mesoscale Model, WRF and Hydrologic simulation