Aditya Sood,Vladimir Smakhtin, IWMI, , A.Sood@cgiar.org
Abstract
Freshwater scarcity is likely to increase in the future. Tapping into alternative water supply sources such as sea water desalination is normally a matter of technology development and cost. While existing desalination technologies remain energy intensive and require high capital investment, they are constantly developing. A similar parallel trend is observed in renewable clean energy sources. With the improved technologies, economy of scale and a shift towards the use of renewable energy, the desalination may become globally more affordable. This study attempts to formulate possible scenarios of these technological developments and examine their global and regional implications. The study uses learning curves to analyze the future trends in desalination and renewable energy, which are then interpreted in terms of specific parameters and integrated into a global economic model – Water, Agriculture, Technology, Environment and Resource Simulation Model (WATERSIM). It explores and illustrates the impacts of government policies for desalination and renewable energy technologies on water availability for agriculture up to 2050.