This study evaluates the impact of Morocco’s water-demand management policies using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM), a technique that constructs a data-driven counterfactual to estimate what Morocco’s water-stress trajectory would have been in the absence of the 2000 reforms. The analysis spans 1990–2020, with 2000 defined as the treatment year marking the implementation of major national water-policy measures. The outcome variable is the level of water stress, reflecting the pressure exerted by water withdrawals relative to available renewable freshwater resources. The treatment variable is a composite index combining renewable freshwater resources per capita and annual freshwater withdrawals, which captures both the supply constraints and the intensity of water demand.
To ensure a credible estimation of the policy’s effect, the model integrates key control variables—namely temperature anomalies, precipitation variations, and population growth rate—in order to account for climatic variability and demographic pressures that could independently influence water stress. These controls help isolate the net effect of policy interventions from climate-induced or demographic shifts.
The donor pool is composed of Mediterranean countries sharing similar climatic and hydrological conditions. This group provides the basis for constructing a synthetic Morocco whose pre-2000 water-stress pattern closely matches the observed data, allowing for a meaningful comparison in the post-intervention period.