Understanding the influence of upstream watershed on downstream water quality is critical for predicting surface water ecological status. • The proposed model demonstrates the capability in predicting SWES (Surface Water Ecological Status) for different scenarios and time horizons, enabling the identification of hotspots of improvement or decline in water quality.
Both climate change and land-use change show their influence on SWES deterioration, emphasizing the need to integrate climate adaptation measures with land-use planning.
The outcomes of this analysis support more targeted and effective land-use management and mitigation strategies