What strategic options are available to States, investors, and other water stakeholders in the face of increasing water-stress risks? If the option of importing water from regions with surplus water resources to regions suffering from severe scarcity is chosen, how can this option be analyzed and valued using real options theory? What are the main variables that can be modeled? What are the limitations of the model?
• The project shifts from a single rigid infrastructure to a portfolio of scalable, evolutive, and measurable real options.
• This approach reinforces bankability, strengthens interstate cooperation, and increases the probability of successful implementation. The option to import water thus emerges as a strategic choice that can be analysed through the lens of real options theory.
• By integrating flexible scenarios, this model enables continuous adaptation to variations in demand, resource availability, and technical or ecological constraints — particularly those linked to climate pressures.
• The advantages of such a framework lie in its ability to provide decision-support tools in the face of water crises and long-term hydrological uncertainty.
• Looking ahead, the option of importing water from the Congo River to Sahelian regions may become increasingly relevant. Its implementation, however, will depend on the establishment of robust institutional frameworks and effective transboundary cooperation - conditions that will be challenging to achieve but essential for long-term viability