IWRA Proceedings

< Return to abstract list

Response of extreme precipitation to urbanization in Taihu Basin considering regional heterogeneity

IWRA World Water Congress 2025 Marrakech Morocco
Water Security and Water-Related Risks
Author(s): Feiqing Jiang
Feiqing Jiang - Nanjing Research Institute of Hydrology and Water Conservation Automation, Ministry of Water Resources, China - 1st Dec. 2025
Oral: PDF

Abstract

Conclusions

This study builds a variable-parameter, non-stationary GEV model linking urbanization, climate, and neighborhood effects to the location parameter.

◆ Initially, a matrix of urbanization factors for different regions, including cities, towns, and rural areas, is constructed, accounting for regional heterogeneity.

◆ Subsequently, the location parameter is modeled as a function of various factors, including climate change, local characteristics, and the influence of neighboring cities and towns.

◆ Based on this, a time-varying extreme value distribution model reflecting the impact of urbanization at different speeds and regions on extreme rainfall is established, uncovering the response patterns of extreme rainfall in the Taihu Basin to urbanization.

 Construct an assessment framework comprehensively reflecting the impact of urbanization at varying speeds in different regions on extreme rainfall,

 revealing how differing regional urbanization speeds shape extreme rainfall and informing climate adaptation and urban planning.

 It provides a scientific basis for the formulation of climate adaptation strategies and urban planning.