Ayeni Amidu Owolabi ,A. S. Omojola,J. M. Fasona, University of Lagos, Department of Geography, aayeni@unilag.edu.ng
Abstract
Population and water production data on Lagos State between 1963 and 2006 were collected, and used for trend and projection analyses. Land use/Land cover maps of 1975, 1995 and NigeriaSat-1 imagery of 2007 were used for land use change analysis. The population of Lagos State increased by about 557.1% between 1963 and 2006, correspondingly, safe water supply increased by 554%. Currently, 60% of domestic water use in urban areas of Lagos State is from groundwater while 75% of rural water is from unsafe surface water. Between 1975 and 2007, urban land use increased by about 235.9%. The 46years climatic records revealed that temperature and evaporation decreased slightly while rainfall and Relatively Humidity (RH) decreased consistently. Based on the current trends, the Lagos State population and required water are expected to increase to about 19.8millions and 2418.9ML/D respectively by the year 2026. Rainfall is likely to decrease by - 6.68cm while temperature will increase by 0.95 0C by 2026. Urban land use is expected to increase by about 20% with expectation of serious congestion in the suburb areas. With these results, over 50% of the urban inhabitants will be highly water poor in years to come if the present trends continue unabated.
Key Words: Urbanization, water supply and climate change