Maria Cecilia Rodrigues Do Prado,Daniel Andrés Rodriguez,Javier Tomasella, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Centro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre, cecilia.prado@inpe.br
Abstract
Hydrologic Response to Scenarios of Climate Changes on the Xingu River Basin The water resources are directly impacted by the climate conditions and land use, so, the effects of global changes are likely to affect the hydrological cycles, which may cause serious problems to society. Therefore, it is necessary to know these impacts, so mitigation activities can be done. In order to assess the effects of global changes in the Xingu river basin, one of the major tributaries of the Amazon River, this study resorted to the MGB/INPE, a macro scale hydrological model, feed by a scenery of future atmospheric condition, generated by the regional model Eta/CPTEC, for the period of 2011 to 2099. Model calibration was performed for the period of 1976 to 1990, followed by the bias correction. According to projections, the mean flow gradually decreased, reaching critical values which can cause serious damage to ecosystems and human population.
Keywords: Hydrological modeling, climate change, Xingu River