Alfredo Ribeiro Neto,Suzana Maria Gico Lima Montenegro,Leonardo Pereira e Silva,José Almir Cirilo, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, , ribeiront@gmail.com
The objective of this study is to estimate the impacts of climate change in the water availability in Pernambuco (99,123 km2 surface area). It has been used precipitation, air temperature and relative humidity calculated by the Global Circulation Model (HadAM3P) and dynamically downscaled by the regional climate model ETA CCS. The systematic biases in precipitation were corrected using cumulative probability. The potential evapotranspiration was calculated with the air temperature and relative humidity (Hargreaves method). The impact in water resources is estimated by means of the water balance calculations based in the Thornthwaite-Mather method. The simulations correspond to the recent past (1961–1990) and a future (2071–2100) climate under the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 emissions scenarios. The average surface runoff calculated with the water balance for the entire state was 213.86 m3 /s (baseline), 164.62 m3 /s (A2) and 173.70 m3 /s (B2) representing a reduction of 18.8% and 23.0% respectively.
Palavras-Chave: Mudanças Climáticas, Balanço Hídrico, Modelagem Regional.
Key-words: Climate Change, Water Balance, Regional Modeling