Magdalena Mrkvickova,Roman Kozin,Adam Beran,Martin Hanel,Oldrich Novicky, T. G. Masaryk Water Research Institute, p.r.i., Hydrology, magdalena_mrkvickova@vuv.cz
The objective of the case study is to validate a proposed methodology for estimating the effectiveness of structural adaptation measures under conditions of climate change. Focusing on a goal of water scarcity overcoming within a pilot basin, we identified several adaptation measures on surface water resources. To examine their effectiveness in future time horizons, we developed a simulation model in HEC-ResSim software. As inputs into the model we applied results of hydrological balance modelling, which were based on outputs of eight RCM models obtained for horizons - 2025, 2055, 2085 and SRES emission scenario - A1B. The effectiveness of identified measures was estimated according to the security of water supply for a mean value of the scenario ensemble. According to our results, a requirement of new water resources within the pilot basin can be satisfied with reliability given by technical standards by a change in the operation rules of an existing water reservoir for all the time horizons without compromising current flood protection level.
Keywords: effectiveness of adaptation measures, HEC-ResSim, preliminary hazard analysis