IWRA World Water Congress 2008 Montpellier France
2. Towards the Future: Water Resources and Global Changes
Author(s):
no
Keyword(s): water shortage, information diffusion, risk assessment, system dynamics, carrying capacity of water
resources, guaranteed rate
Article: PDFAbstractA risk assessment model for water shortage was
constructed from the risk analysis method based on the information diffusion theory. The application of this model
was demonstrated in the city of Yiwu in Zhejiang Province, China. The study indicates that the present model is more
stable and effective when compared with the traditional model, based on analytical results from a small sample. The
risk assessment result was used to analyze the carrying capacity of water resources from an ecological angle. The
author advances that the carrying capacity of water resources should be defined as the maximum bearing capacity of
water resources for human activity in certain stages of social development under the sound circle of the ecological
system. Further study on Yiwu was also performed in the paper, and the result indicates that water shortage in this
city is not of the relevant type of water source and can classified in terms of water quality type as well as water
conservancy. In order to verify the result of the theoretical investigation in the present paper, the author also
simulates the dynamic changing process of carrying capacity of water resources under the condition of enforcement
of the future policy in the city. The simulation uses the model of system dynamics (SD), according to the historical
data of the city over twenty years and the governmental standard for comprehensively building a comfortable society
by 2020. The paper simultaneously indicates that the primary scheme of unilaterally pursuing the fast development of
the economy at the expense of environment and the secondary scheme of taking environmental protection as the
primary goal via slowing of development of the economy are undesirable for Yiwu. Furthermore, a scheme of
simultaneously giving consideration to both economic development and environmental protection should be the
preferred scheme. However, if the present amount of water supply is constantly maintained in the near future, the
requirement for water supply will not be satisfied under the balanced considerations of economy and environment.
The carrying capacity of water resources in this region can be effectively improved only under the situation of not
only strengthening the investment in environmental protection but also increasing income and reducing expenditure
year after year.