Prof. Sergey MYAGKOV - Hydrometeorological Research Institute
Dr. Oksana Zadoroznaya - Ministry of Health
(a) Purpose or objectives and status of study or research hypothesis
The aim of the project is to determine the impact of the hydrochemical regime of surface waters on the health of the rural population. Based on multivariate regression analysis, the dependences of the number of diseases on the concentration of chemical elements in the water of rivers and canals flowing through the territory of administrative districts were obtained. In the equation: the number of diseases registered in the region depend from concentration of total water mineralization, calcium, chlorine, hydro carbonates, potassium, magnesium, sodium and SO4.
(b) Key issue(s) or problem(s) addressed
In rural areas of surface water is used to irrigate food production fields and often for drinking. The chemical composition of water has a direct impact on the health of the population. A nosogeographic analysis of the incidence of the population from the hydrochemical regime of surface waters flowing through the territory of administrative districts was carried out using geographic information systems (GIS) technologies. Nosogeographic GIS analysis revealed territories with different incidence rates.
(c) Methodology or approach used
The method of multivariate regression analysis of morbidity from the concentration of chemical elements was used. GIS technologies were used to visualize the analysis results. As the initial information, the materials of medical statistics of appeals to medical institutions, a list of diseases and data of hydrochemical observations at hydrological posts were taken.
(d) Results and conclusions derived from the project
GIS maps of the territorial distribution of the morbidity of the rural population were obtained. Multivariate equations for regression of the risk of an increase in morbidity from changes in the hydrochemical regime of surface waters have been obtained.
(e) Implications of the project relevant to selected conference theme, theory and/or practice
The implementation of the project makes it possible to assess the risk of an increase in the morbidity of the rural population from changes in the hydrochemical regime of surface waters as a result of changes in the regime of water use and water consumption, the dynamics of agrotechnical measures in the production of food in irrigated areas. Calculate the risk of an increase in morbidity from changes in the parameters of the hydrological cycle of natural watercourses as a result of climate change.