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BEHAVIOR PATTERN MODELS OF THE MONTHLY RAINFALL AGAINST MEAN HISTORICAL TEMPERATURE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

IWRA World Water Congress 2017 - Cancun Mexico
5. Water ecosystems and physical regimes
Author(s): Ing. Gonzalo Daniel Mejia Santana
Dra. Maritza Liliana Arganis Juárez
M.I. Eliseo Carrizosa Elizondo
Ing. José Carlos Ramírez García
Jacquelinne Mariles Gutiérrez<
Ing. Gonzalo Daniel Mejia Santana
Institute of Engineering, National Autonomous University of Mexico.
GMejiaS@iingen.unam.mx
Dra. Maritza Liliana Arganis Juárez
Institute of Engineering, National Autonomous University of Mexico.
MArganisJ@iingen.unam.mx
M.I. Eliseo Carrizosa Elizondo
Institute of Engineering, National Autonomous University of Mexico.
ecae@pumas.iingen.unam.mx
Ing. José Carlos Ramírez García
Institute of Engineering, National Autonomous University of Mexico.
JRamirezG@iingen.unam.mx
Jacquelinne Mariles Gutiérrez
Institute of Engineering, National Autonomous University of Mexico.
JMarilesG@iingen.unam.mx
M.I. Margarita Preciado Jiménez
Mexican Institute of Water Technology
preciado@tlaloc.imta.mx
M.I. Nikte Ocampo Guerrero
Institute of Engineering, National Autonomous University of Mexico.
nikteocg@yahoo.com.mx
Dra. Jeannette del Carmen Zambrano Nájera
National University of Colombia
jdzambranona@unal.edu.co


Keyword(s): climatological variables; models; climate change scenarios; precipitation and air temperature, genetic programming.
Article: Poster:

Abstract

The study of how climatological variables had been or will change over time under emissions of greenhouse gases, has been the subject of several researches since the late nineteenth century and they  have increased since the eighties of the XXI Century .

The population growth in the medium and short term mean a greater urbanization with the consequent change in land use in a country; civil protection measures to be implemented will be essential to alert and protect future populations to the occurrence of extraordinary weather events, providing necessary measures in cases such as heatwaves, frosts and floods. In different countries there are  units responsible for warning the populations in these cases. In particular knowledge of the behavior of precipitation historically occurred on a site and its forecasting in the long  term from variables with relative simplicity of measurement (such as the temperature) is of utmost importance to be able to take action preventive. Rainfall forecast with different climate change scenarios are useful for obtaining new forecasting models that include the history and a first predicted approximation of new series with longer than the historical record length.

The problem of obtaining equations that allow not only reproduce the history of an event, but also to predict the behavior in the near future, will give decision makers in civil protection time for decision-making on prevention and mitigation of damage to a meteorological phenomenon such as precipitation.

Considering new data from presumably climate change scenarios brings to research a new component with respect to existing forecast models. Having the experience and contribution of employees of national and international institutions adds relevance to the investigation.

Ten weather stations with daily records of precipitation and air temperature were selected; on such sites climate change models were applied using the system SEDEPECC the Mexican Institute of Water Technology, with horizons of 50,100,1000,5000 and 10000 years, obtaining forecasts of precipitation and temperature. Monthly behavior patterns of precipitation depending on the temperature-year in the historically recorded values were identified. These models were used to predict precipitation that was compared against that historically  recorded  for a length m. These models were fitted to a dissection method both vertical and horizontal, finding a higher correlation with  the horizontal dissection method.

 

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