Congress Resources: Papers, posters and presentations

< Return to abstract list


Congress: 2008
Pan Xingyao 1 2, Xia Jun 1, Liu Honglu 3, Li Fahu 4 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China 2. Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China 3. Beijing Hydraulic Resea

Keyword(s): Water Resource Carrying Capacity (WRCC), Geographic Information System (GIS), Fuzzy Mathematics
AbstractWith the climate changing, as well as development of the economy, water shortage is becoming more and more serious, and it has been aggravated further by the population growth. Research on Water Resource Carrying Capacity (WRCC) is a basics for sustainable water resource management. WRCC is an important component of economy, water resource and eco-environment planning. Taking TongZhou of Beijing as an example, indicator system of evaluation was set up and mathematic model was built up basing on Fuzzy Mathematics and Grey Relation Assessment. Grid anatomy method of GIS was applied to construct a dataset about indicator system. WRCC dynamic tendency within the region was studied by superposition function of GIS and mathematical model. The results indicated that the WRCC valuation method not only was more accurate than conventional methods can result to but also more intuitive on valuation outcomes and more plenty on information. WRCC in TongZhou district was evaluated and were obtained: (1) The WRCC from 1980 to 2003 was glowing from very weak (Ⅰ) to middling (Ⅲ); (2) The WRCC in TongZhou district will be high in 2010 and 2020, and they were comparative strong (Ⅳ) and very strong (Ⅴ) respectively; (3) Carrying Capacity of economic and ecological systems showed a continuous raising but that of water resource system deteriorating. The shortage of water resource and poor quality of water environment is the biggest restrict factor for development in the next 20 years; (4) The deference of WRCC within this district wasn’t great except the downtown in which the WRCC was especially high. Because of fast economy development and great eco-environment water requirement, the levels of economy and eco-environment system was high. The need of the population and development of economy led to the increasing amount of water requirement, and the pressure of water resource heavy in this area, so the carrying capacity of water resource sub system was lowest, and the trend becomes lower and lower In 2010, when the population reaches 1 million and the GDP is 29810 Yuan, sub-systems in the studied area will be in harmony with each other at P=50% and P=75%, but the water resource sub-system is serious at P=95%. In 2020, when the population reaches 1.3 million and the GDP is 80770 Yuan, sub-systems will be in harmony only at P=50%. The water resource sub-system is very serious at P=75% and P=95%. The carrying capacity of water resource sub-system is very weak (Ⅰ) at P=95%. So the increase population in the region should be strictly controlled after 2010, and total population amount should be limited below 0.6 million in downtown area. The result in the paper can be used in water resource and economy planning and management in TongZhou district.
© 2011 IWRA - International Water Resources Association - - Admin