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State of the Tajikistan glaciers and adaptation of economic activities in conditions of global warming

Congress: 2008
Author(s): Jochen Froebrich(2), Bekmurod Mahmadaliev(3), GeorgyPetrov(1)
1Institute of Water problems, Hydropower and Ecology of Academy of Sciences Republic of Tajikistan, 12, Parvin str., Dushanbe, 734002, Tajikistan, tel/fax: +99237 2245231, e-mail: 2 University of Hannover, Am Kleinen Felde
AbstractIntroduction Increasing of the areas of the irrigated grounds in Central Asia up to 8,8 mln. ha (in period of USSR) was made in view of presence of large stocks of water resources and first of all glaciers in mountains of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Reduction of the area of the glaciations and global warming on a planet are required development of strategy of complex and rational use of water resources and permanent monitoring of a condition of glaciers. In the paper present results of topographical surveys, cross-section profile and the description of occurring changes in glaciers of North-West Pamirís received at expedition 2006 year and considered influence of reduction of a glacial drain on two basic for the Central Asia of kinds of economic activities: irrigation and water-power engineering. Dynamic of the Fedchenko glaciers change The main area of glaciations is in mountains of North-West Pamir the center of which is Fedchenko glacier - the largest mountain glacier in the world. By 1988 the glacier step backs more than on 500 m and has decreased on the area 4 km2. Average speed of step back of the Fedchenko glacier for the XX century made 10-12 m/year. Its bottom part for the space of nine kilometers subsides; it was broken with numerous cracks. Thus Fedchenko glacier has lost almost all its right inflow- they became independent glaciers. Only for forty years from mountain range of Academy of Sciences, Zaallay and Kaindi have disappeared 14 not large glaciers the general area of 7,6 km2. Average speed of movement of glacier in connection with loss of weight has decreased 69 -72 sm/day. In total for 20th century the glacier has lost about 12-15 km3 ice. The next expedition on glacier Fedchenko has been organized in September, 2006 after an eighteen-year break. It was observed, that glacier Fedchenko continues to be reduced non-uniformly with speed of 8-10 m/ year. In the eightieth years of the twentieth century the glacier reduced on twenty meters a year. On a cross -section structure in seven kilometers the glacier is higher than tongue settles 1,5 m annually though twenty years ago intensity of subsidence made 2,0 - 2,5 m/year. Conclusion At very large variability of a drain of the Vakhsh River, which feeding from Fedchenko glaciers obvious trends its volume does not exist. The researches carried out by us and calculations on mathematical models show, that final result of climate change alongside with change of volumes of a drain will be increase of the precipitation quantity and consequently the increase of a water drain and reduction of floods. These factors are favorable for economic activities.
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