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Hydrologic Extreme Events Analysis under Climate Change Hypothesis.

Congress: 2008
Author(s):
Dr. Nassir El-Jabi is a professor in the department of Civil Engineering at Université de Moncton and an Adjunct Assistant Professor at Dalhousie University (Canada). His recent research has focused on environmental surface hydrology and much of his past

Keyword(s): Floods, Droughts, Extreme values, Statistical Downscaling, Frequency Analysis, Climate Change.
Abstract Climate change will undoubtedly alter the quantity and quality of water resources, presenting significant challenges to a region highly dependent on water based industries such as agriculture and fisheries. The vulnerability of water resources to climate change impacts is highly dependent on the adaptation of the water management systems to changing hydro-climatic conditions and on the capacity of rivers to carry flood waters and to sustain water demands under low flow conditions. Any research results in relation to extreme events such as droughts and flooding, and climate change impacts on water resources will enable Canadians to better understand possible future scenarios and to develop better adaptation strategies Therefore, the objectives of this study are to present future river discharge scenarios in Canada and to characterize the frequency of floods and droughts under climate change for a better management of water resources. Specifically, this study will: i. Generate site-specific future river discharge scenarios (2010-2099) for different locations across Canada by statistical downscaling of General Circulation Model (GCM) projections. ii. Evaluate future low flow and flood characteristics using both the annual series approach and the Deficit Below or Peak Over Threshold methods. iii. Analyze historic and future extreme event characteristics (droughts and floods) and to identify (and quantify) potential trends under climate change.
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