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Alvito-Odivelas Reservoir System Operation under Climate Change Scenarios

Congress: 2008
Author(s): Maria Madalena Moreira, Sandra Mourato
Deepti Rani, Post-doctoral fellow, Department of Rural Engineering, University of Évora, 7000 Évora, Portugal, Email: Maria Madalena Moreira, Assistant Professor, Department of Rural Engineering, University of Évora, 7000 Évora,

Keyword(s): Adaptation to climate changes, Climate change, Climate scenarios, Dynamic programming, Reservoir operation, Simulation.
AbstractProjections for the next decades, based on climate models, of the climate variables related to the water resources, are: increase in temperature, variation of precipitation patterns, increase of the intensity and frequency of the extreme precipitation events and sea level rise. These changes have impacts on water availably and water demands. Studying the impacts of climate change on water resources is complex as it varies with time and locations. According to a recent European Environment Agency technical report, average run-off and water availability in Southern European rivers are likely to decrease due to increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation in contrast to the Northern part. Adaptation to the impacts of climate change in water resources studies can prepare us for sustainable management. Operation and management policies of existing reservoir systems need to be re-evaluated to adapt to climatic change. The present study deals with optimal operation of Alvito-Odivelas reservoir system located in Alentejo region in the South of Portugal, using a combined dynamic programming-simulation model, to examine the impact of climate change. The inflows are generated for the A2 climate change scenario using the physically based hydrological model SHETRAN. The climate data will come from three different climate models: i) the HadRm3P regional model driven from the global model HadAM3P A2; ii) the HIRHAM regional model driven from the global model HadAM3H A2; and iii) the HIRHAM regional model driven from the global model ECHAM4/OPYC A2. Results obtained for climate change scenario are compared with the results based on historical data, in order to analyze the impact of climate change on the system operation and the operation policies adaptable to climate change are proposed.
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