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WATER BALANCE MODEL TO PREDICT CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN WATERSHED EPITÁCIO PESSOA – PARAÍBA RIVER - BRAZIL

Congress: 2008
Author(s): Josicleda D. Galvíncioa, Magna Soelma Beserra de Moura, Francisco de Assis Salviano de Sousa
Pesquisadora da Embrapa Semi-Árido em Petrolina/Brazil. Professor da Universidade Federal de Campina Grande.

Keyword(s): Climatic change; hydrological cycle, Semi-arid; Paraíba River-Brazil
Article: Oral:
AbstractClimatic change has great implications for hydrological cycle and water resources planning. In order to assess this impact, a macro-scale and semi-distributed monthly water balance model was proposed and developed to simulate and predict the hydrological processes. GIS techniques were used as a tool to analyze topography, river networks, land-use, human activities, vegetation and soil characteristics. The model parameters were linked to these basin characteristics by regression and optimization methods. The model development will also be used to obtain an appreciation of the process controls of water balance in large heterogeneous catchments in semi-arid climates. The semi-arid regions, such as Taperoá and Caraúbas River basins in State Paraíba – Brazil the runoffs of these basins are small or even zero during dry season (from Aug. to Jan) and are very sensitive to temperature increase and rainfall decrease. Results of the study also indicated that runoff is more sensitive to variation in precipitation than to increase in temperature. Climate change challenges existing water resources management practices by additional uncertainty. Integrated water resources management will enhance the potential for adaptation to change.
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