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Identification of Hydrological Response to Climate Change and Human Activities by Distributed Monthly Water Balance Model

Congress: 2008
Author(s): Jun XIA, Gangsheng WANG, Aizhong YE
Donghui WAN, Aizhong YE State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China Jun XIA, Gangsheng WANG Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of

Keyword(s): climate change, human activities, monthly water balance model
AbstractClimate, human activities and water always interact in the perspective of science or social economic development. With the human activities enhancing, natural environment for human existence has correspondingly changed, and negative hydrological response caused by human activities and climate change has brought many threats. So research on the process of hydrological system response to human activities and climate change is a hotspot of international water science. In order to identify and quantify the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff, according to the scientifically modeling protocol, a simple monthly subbasin-based water balance model is put forward, where the improved Bagrov evapotranspiration model is developed to parameterize the distinguishes between various land covers, and a parameter set is introduced to represent the impacts of human activities on runoff generation and evapotranspiration processes. In the case study of the Chaobai River Basin in North China, the model was used to quantificationally identify the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff. In the Bai River Basin, the annual mean precipitation of the 1980s (1980-1988) and 1990s (1990-2001) decreased by 9% and 5% compared with that of the 1970s (1961-1966 and 1973-1979), but the runoff reduced by 54% and 52% respectively. The simulation results indicate that the contribution rates of climate change and human activities are 44% and 54% respectively. In the Chao River Basin, such contribution rates are 24% and 74%, i.e., human activities are the main reason of runoff decrease.
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