Ministério do Meio Ambiente do Brasil1, Secretaria de Assuntos Estratégicos da Presidência da República do Brasil2
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports have been demonstrating that climate change, particularly in South America, represents a major threat to sustainable development, by affecting directly and indirectly significant portion of the population and their health, as well as water resources, urban and rural infrastructure, coastal zones, forests, biodiversity and economic sectors -- such as agriculture, fishing, energy and industries -- and their respective value chains. Given this trend scenario, the formation of a technical and scientific knowledge accumulation to support decision making consists in a timely and challenging opportunity in order to allow the planning of public and private investments to be based not only on observed data and safety factors, but also on projected data factors, considering the uncertainties in the decision-making process. Cooperating with informed decision making and treating produced data basis as public assets, the Secretariat of Strategic Affairs of the Presidency of Brazil (SAE/PR in Portuguese) along with other governmental and non-governmental agencies have been working on the production of climate and hydrological scenarios - quantitative information - to support discussions around a prospective planning adapted to climate change, particularly through the consumptive water user sectors (such as water supply, industry and irrigation) and non-consumptive sectors (such as navigation, energy production, fishing and recreation). In general, these scenarios are supposed to assess future water availability, considering the timeframe of 2011 to 2040, through observed data from 1961 to 1990, taking into account temperature (ÂºC) and precipitation (mm/day) variation patterns. Therefore, the work in question unfolds in three specific steps. The first one consists in the coupling of the output values of the climate models to hydrological modeling. For that, SAE/PR acquired the regional climate models EtaHadgen and EtaMiroc5 (downscaled to 20 km x 20 km) from the National Institute for Space Research (INPE in Portuguese), considering the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for 4.5 and 8.5 variations for the seasonal periods of summer (December, January and February) and winter (June, July and August), considering the 2011-2040 timeframe. As a result, twelve different scenarios of future temperature and precipitation patterns were generated, considering EtaHadgen and EtaMiroc5 models in summer and winter seasons in 4.5 and 8.5 variations. The second step deals with the utilisation of the model outputs for each one of the twelve scenarios. The variables are presented as input elements in the hydrologic models as preselected from the "Soil Conservation Service" (SCN) for the twelve Brazilian Hydrographic Regions with applicability to basins whose area is greater than two km2. This hydrological modeling uses the output data of the climate modeling as well as the observed data considering the timeframe of 1961-1990 in two thirds for calibration and one third for validation of the observed excerpt. Thus, the generation of projected future, natural and artificial flows will serve as a support element to the verification of licensing processes for water use as well as for the verification of the current parameters and existing infrastructure projects, such as the projected peak flows return periods and the definition of territorial orientation for new allocations of investments in water infrastructure. The third step aims at identifying adaptation measures for water users sectors which consider a multiscale from the standardization of materials to the regulatory standards and frameworks. Therefore, it is argued that with this quantitative analysis and methodological proposal it is possible to collaborate with the inclusion of the climate dimension in the planning of water user sectors enabling them to decide about future investment and water allocation in a more technical basis, despite its abundance in Brazil. Thus, this approach is in line with SAE/PR's institutional role of guiding actions of the public and private sectors, policy makers and civil society regarding the national planning and prioritization of adaptation alternatives as a means to achieve a more sustainable and resilient national development. Finally, beyond the steps presented and taking into account other adaptation initiatives being carried out in the country, this work aims at addressing challenges in the integration of water user sectors, as well as in the climate and hydrological modeling towards a more effective appropriation of the observed results into decision-making processes. ALEXANDRE, A. M. B.(2012) PrevisÃ£o de vazÃµes mensais para o sistema interligado nacional utlizando informaÃ§Ãµes climÃ¡ticas. Fortaleza-CE: Universidade Federal do CearÃ¡, Tese de Doutorado em engenharia civil. COLLISCHONN, W.; DORNELLES, F. (2013)Hidrologia para engenharias e ciÃªncias ambientais. 1 ed. Porto Alegre: ABRH. FOWLER, H.J.; EKSTRÃ–M, M. (2009). Multi-model ensemble estimates of climate change impacts on UK seasonal precipitation extremes. Int J Climatol 29: 385-416. INOUYE, C.E.N. (2012). Modelagem dinÃ¢mica espacial e os impactos de mudanÃ§as globais: cenÃ¡rios de ocupaÃ§Ã£o no Litoral Norte de SÃ£o Paulo. DissertaÃ§Ã£o de mestrado, Instituto TecnolÃ³gico de AeronÃ¡utica. SÃ£o JosÃ© dos Campos. 100p. TUCCI, C. E. M.; PORTO, R. L. L.; BARROS, M. T. (1995) Drenagem urbana. 1. ed. Porto Alegre: Editora da Universidade/ABRH. Sin Chan Chou, AndrÃ© Lyra, Caroline MourÃ£o, Claudine Dereczynski, Isabel Pilotto, Jorge Gomes1, Josiane Bustamante, Priscila Tavares, Adan Silva, Daniela Rodrigues, Diego Campos, Diego Chagas, Gustavo Sueiro, Gracielle Siqueira, Paulo Nobre. (2014). Valuation of the Eta simulations nested in three global climate models.American Journal of Climate Change. BRASIL, Secretaria de Assuntos EstratÃ©gicos da PresidÃªncia da RepÃºblica (2014). AdaptaÃ§Ã£o Ã s MudanÃ§as do Clima: CenÃ¡rios e Alternativas Â– Recursos HÃdricos. BRASIL, Secretaria de Assuntos EstratÃ©gicos da PresidÃªncia da RepÃºblica (2014). AdaptaÃ§Ã£o Ã s MudanÃ§as do Clima: CenÃ¡rios e Alternativas Â– Infraestrutura Urbana.