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Simulation Of Multi Stakeholders Dams Operation Scenarios And Evaluating The Water Resources System By Sustainability Indicators And Conflict Resolution Theory

Congress: 2015
Author(s): Vahid Askarinejad, Arash Akhavan Masouleh
Iran Water Resources Management Company1

Keyword(s): Sub-theme 10: Management of water resources,
AbstractAccording to the position of water resources management in resolution of created conflicts and prevention of some water allocation problems, the water resources and demands planning with allocation optimizing objective function and equality is necessary in the water basins. Some effective factors such as water and soil resources, demands variety, economy, social and environment issues should be considered. In cases which the water resources exploitation is done by multi stakeholders in several provinces, water allocation prioritize based on general policies and sustainability analysis is the appropriate approach for determination of each provinces water share from existing water resources and development projects. Dams operation is the function of several factors and restrictions. For planning of that we should consider some operation objectives such as water demands allocation, flood control and minimum environmental requirements. Due to the multiplicity of dams' operation factors and their uncertainty, the systemic approach in reservoir operation is necessary. So, codification of the water allocation program considering all demand sites and stakeholders utilities is significant and inevitable. For that, knowing that the decision making is complicated because of different objectives, points of view and priorities, decision must be taken with considering all the utilities, disagreements and relative strength of stakeholders. Moreover, because of very high costs of the development projects and low participation of private sector alongside the limited public funds, the necessity of projects prioritize and optimization is inevitable..

In this research, for evaluate the exploitation scenarios and optimize the system operation under some reasonable constraints, we have used simulation and optimization models WEAP and LINGO, in ZOHRE water basin in Iran. The dams' multiplicity (some continuum and parallel), deference and diversity of agriculture demands (water rights, improvement and development), domestic and industrial demands and also inter-basin water transfer are increase the modeling and planning complexity. The ZOHRE watershed includes the parts of three provinces called FARS, KOHGILOOYE and KHOOZESTAN. More than supply their demand sites, we have water transfer from this watershed to BOOSHEHR province for domestic water demands. Now in this water basin only one dam is at operation (KOSAR dam in KOHGILOOYE province) and others are under construction or design. We have optimized the thirteen agricultural development plans by the model from the standpoint of water resources potentials of each province. Simulation has been done in two steps, first step by considering six predicted agricultural development plans in the recognition and design phases and second step with seven agricultural development plans in the feasibility phase. The water demands and resources' simulation in Second step is based on optimization. In both steps some water allocation and reservoirs operations' scenarios has been developed with the same approach in general concepts and some little deference in details. The bases of scenarios development are domestic, industry, agriculture and environments' demands priorities, surface and ground water preferences and dams operation rules. Scenarios evaluation and analysis have been done by amount of unmet demands, sustainability indicators such as reliability, reversibility and vulnerability and the conflict resolution theory.

Finally the best case scenario (SCE 13-5) has been elected based on these analysis approaches. The best case scenario shows that implementation the Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) in this water basin, maximizing the development sustainability and minimizing the stakeholders' conflicts. In other words, this research indicate the pattern of development plans in same water basins based on sustainability and water sharing with minimum conflicts. The investigation of KOSAR dam exploitation which is the only in operation dam in this watershed, has been done for several deferent water years and some future threats and probable challenges was extracted.

Results show that the best way for sustainable developments' assurance is planning and integrated management of dams operation and watershed resources and demands. Others managing approaches such as upstream-downstream management or central management in one province are not sustainable and applicable in long time but maybe effective in short time management. For this important objective, we had several meetings and exact planning for prepare the KOSAR dams' water allocation documents, in ministry of energy with the aim of sustainability in long term dam and watershed operation. Preparing these documents is in the final steps and then we will use them for operating the reservoir supply in droughts or wet water years.

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