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Evaluation Of Climate Change Impacts On Lower Euphrates Irrigations In Gap Projects

Congress: 2015
Author(s): Remziye YILDIZ GiœLA&#;ACI, Hi¼seyin Sefa HIZLI, Esra AYDINi–Z

General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works GAP 15th Regional Directorate1, Atmospheric Sciences, Graduate School of Science Engineering and Technology, Istanbul Technical University2



Keyword(s): Sub-theme 17: Climate change, impacts and adaptation,
Abstract

The most major cause of external factors which change climate system is the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by about 35% in the industrial era because of mainly the combustion of fossil fuels and removal of forests due to human activities (Le Treut, 2007). As issues related to global climate change such as environmental pollution, desertification, erosion, marine pollution and land degradation problems increasingly continue to occur, it can be said that agriculture and water resources are the most affected sectors from climate change. The amount of water used per person living in Turkey is 1,500 m3/year. This situation shows that Turkey is not a water rich country and it takes place in countries which suffer water scarcity. The increase in temperature and the decrease in water resources due to climate change will significantly raise water demand. This situation requires reducing of the water use in agriculture in Turkey (Kanber et al., 2010). In addition to the water resources, land use and land cover in the basin will be significantly affected by the consequences of climate change (1st NCTCC, 2007). In this study, the effect of global climate change on Lower Euphrates Irrigations within Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) is analyzed. The importance of the study is to be considered in the region where GAP project covers which is the largest integrated development project in Turkish Republic history. Because, the GAP project is a regional development project that includes many industries such as irrigation, energy, transportation, tourism and so on. It is reported that irrigation investments in GAP is the most important component of the project and both welfare and socio-economic development of the region will be improved along with the increase in national income (GÃŒlağacı, 2011). When the projects within GAP are completed, approximately 1,822,000 ha area in total of 9 provinces which about 932,250 ha (~51%) of those has been in DSİ 15th Region Directorate responsibility will be irrigated. 391,400 ha of these irrigation areas (~42%) will be held with Lower Euphrates Irrigations. Water is conveyed by Şanlıurfa Tunnels (ŞT) in Lower Euphrates Irrigations. Şanlıurfa Tunnels Irrigations (ŞTI) which is the study subject has important role within GAP project in terms of water use. The World's longest irrigation tunnel is ŞT which consist of two parallel tunnels in 26 km lengthy and each of 7.62 m in diameter has a capacity with 328 m3/s discharge in total. ŞT's water resource is AtatÃŒrk Dam which is built within GAP and is 6th order in terms of truck size. ŞTI are composed of Şanlıurfa-Harran Plains Irrigation with 163,900 ha in operation and Mardin-Ceylanpınar Plains Irrigation with 227,500 ha in phase of project and construction. As all projects will be finalized, water in 3,900 hm3/year will be used from ŞT. Precipitation and temperature projections are generated for years 2013-2099 in two studies (Demir, et al., 2007 and Kiliç et al., 2010) which have been on General Directorate of Meteorology web page. These projections are produced in regard of the global model outputs of ECHAM5 and HadGEM2-ES which are formed according to A2 and RCP4.5 concentration scenarios that are reported in 4th and 5th IPPC Assessment Reports, respectively. In addition, projections are prepared in 27 and 20 km resolution by using RegCM3 and RegCM4.3.4 regional downscaling climate model, correspondingly above. Outputs of these studies are used as input in calculations of irrigation water request (IWR) in ŞTI and IWR calculations are practiced according to new situation in different projections based on climate change limits. Blaney-Criddle method is used in all of 20 projects in which the calculations of IWR that are used in ŞTI projects are separately calculated and are evaluated as a single area by means of areal weighted average. It is aimed to present the changes by recalculating IWR of projects based on Blaney-Criddle method under these changing meteorological conditions. In result of evaluation, it is presented that IWR which is already in high value in Şanlıurfa where rainfall amount average is 425 mm/year and evaporation amount is 1,500 mm/year will increase dramatically because of increasing temperatures and decreasing rainfall via climate change. Findings which are obtained from projected climate change scenarios show IWR in ŞTI will increase most probably with a 16% ratio in 2040, then with a 24% ratio in 2070 and with over a 30% ratio in 2099. In conclusion, projecting level of changes (%) in IWR calculations, location and size of the main canal capacities, irrigation systems, canal management systems and intermediate storages which are systems using ŞT as main water source are questioned and suggestions such as system revisions, crop patterns, deficit irrigation management should be seen as first base opportunities because of the high probability of ŞT being inadequate for the recalculated IWR. Furthermore, assuming there would no water scarcity in AtatÃŒrk Dam within GAP project, problems about water use, water transmission and distribution, water allocation can increase by the expected impact of climate change. In the case of managing and planning water resources, maximum efficiency and sustainable resource management will be manageable by adapting to the possible effects of climate change. 1. Demir, Ö., Atay, H., Eskioğlu, O., Tuvan, A., Demircan, M., Akçakaya, A., (2013), RCP4.5 Senaryosuna Göre TÃŒrkiye'de Sıcaklık Ve Yağış Projeksiyonları, III. TÃŒrkiye İklim Değişikliği Kongresi, TİKDEK 2013, 3-5 Haziran, İstanbul. 2. GÃŒlağacı, R.Y., (2011), GAP Bölgesinde Uygulanan Sulama Sistemleri, Karşılaşılan Sorunlar Ve ÇözÃŒm Önerileri, GAP VI. Tarım Kongresi, 09-12 Mayıs 2011, Şanlıurfa, 3. Kanber, R., Baştuğ, R., BÃŒyÃŒktaş, D., ÃœnlÃŒ, M., Kapur, B., (2010), KÃŒresel İklim Değişikliğinin Su Kaynakları Ve Tarımsal Sulamaya Etkileri, Turkey Agricultural Engineering VII. Technical Congress, 83-118. 4. Le Treut, H., R. Somerville, U. Cubasch, Y. Ding, C. Mauritzen, A. Mokssit, T. Peterson and M. Prather, (2007): Historical Overview of Climate Change. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 5. Kiliç, G., Demir, I., Coşkun, M., (2010), Regionalization Of Climate Change Information Projections For Turkey, 31 6. 1st NCTCC, First National Communication of Turkey on Climate Change, (2007), Ministry of Environment and Forestry, 1-268

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