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A Spatial and Temporal Water Demand Simulation System How to reduce stress on resources?

Congress: 2008
Author(s): Paule-Annick DAVOINE, René ARRUS
Mahfoud Boudis — René Arrus Laboratoire d’Economie de la Production et de l’Intégration Internationale - LEPII, CNRS UMR 5252, Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble II 1221 Rue des Résidences - BP 47 - 38 400 Saint-Martin d'Hères, France Telephon

Keyword(s): Water Demand, Water Resources, Sustainable Development,Time, Space, Sectors, Modelling, Simulation, Cartography, Geographical Information System, Decision Support System.
AbstractINTRODUCTION For a long time, water was regarded as an inexhaustible and inexpensiveness raw material and used as an input for the development of the agriculture, industries and services, or similar to consumer goods for urban and rural populations. Thus the tendency was to step by step adapt supply to the variations of water demands. Currently, taking into account the climatic and environmental changes, water is more and more considered, like a rare and fragile resource, and this even by the industrialized countries,. Many exogenous and endogenous factors disturb the offer of water; modify the behaviors of the users, and thus the volume of the water demand. Today it is possible to act on the demand and to adapt its components to the random events such as dryness, rainfalls, pollution... We know that water demand can originate from different and various sectors, but more comprehensive elements in each sector must be considered to reach a good integrated water management. For example, the urban demand can be influenced by several factors such as social practices of water users, the kind of housing, or the structural and spatial extension of cities. All these elements determine the future water demand and then its consequences from the viewpoint of town and country planning, of water networks dimensioning, and of costs recovery means. So many points allow analysing why a situation evolves or regresses. The actual practice contents itself with a global knowledge level, but ignores why the demand reaches a given level and what determines the different levels, what mechanics are at work. Our approach is mainly oriented by this idea. OBJECTIVE We propose a decision support system for an integrated prospective water demand management to analyse how to reduce stress on resources by the simulation of different scenarios of supply and demand evolution through time, space and economic sectors. METHODOLOGY After the evaluation of urban water demand evolution parameters in towns which are less or more endowed with water, have various sizes, and located in different countries such as France, Italy, Spain and Morocco, a hierarchical and analytical simulation economic model for urban water demand has been developed. To get an integrated decision support system for water management actors, this model is first extended to include the agricultural water demand which is destined to irrigation and livestock uses and other sectors like industry, tourism and energy. Then a new implementation of the model is developed and integrated in a geographical information system with a very user-friendly interface which is easily understandable for decision-makers. Results and discussion The methodology and the technology used to develop the simulation system are presented. First, the analytical economic model of water demand and supply is described. Second, we expose the technological choices for the model implementation and the functionalities of the simulation system. Finally we explain how the model can be used to perform “what-if” simulations and to analyse how to reduce stress on resources, and we discuss how it can be adapted for doing “how-to” simulations to achieve best practices of water governance.
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